Filed at 9:58 a.m. ET
GENEVA (Reuters) - Massive flooding, disease and drought could hit
rich and poor countries around the world over coming decades if global
warming is not halted, an authoritative U.N. scientific team warned
Monday.
The scientists said they foresaw glaciers and polar icecaps
melting, countless species of animals, birds and plant life dying out,
farmland turning to desert, fish-supporting coral reefs destroyed, and
small island states sunk beneath the sea.
The disaster scenario, with its major impact on the global economy,
was set out in a 1,000-page report by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which links nearly 3,000 experts in
dozens of countries and has been studying the warming problem since
1990.
``Projected climate changes during the 21st century have the
potential to lead to future large-scale and possibly irreversible
changes in Earth systems, resulting in impacts on continental and
global scales,'' the report said.
``Climate change in polar regions is expected to be among the
greatest of any region on the Earth,'' declared a Summary for
Policymakers agreed at a meeting of IPCC scientists and officials of
over 100 governments in Geneva last week.
Hinting at sharper global social conflict to come, it said poorer
countries, and the poorest people in rich countries, would suffer the
most -- increasing the North-South divide and the poverty gap in the
United States and Europe.
POOR LESS ABLE TO ADAPT
The effects of a surge in hurricanes, floods, higher temperatures
and water shortages ``are expected to fall disproportionately on the
poor because they are less able to adapt,'' Harvard professor James
McCarthy told a news conference.
McCarthy, one of the authors of the report, said farming in
tropical and sub-tropical regions would be worst hit ``and tens of
millions of people will be at risk from sea-level rise.''
The report is the second of four to be issued this year as
governments gird up for a fresh effort to shape a pact on how to
tackle the warming problem and avert disaster.
Last month the first report said the earth's atmosphere was warming
faster than the IPCC initially thought and largely because of human
activity -- use of carbon-based fossil fuels, industrial pollution and
destruction of forests and wetlands.
Next month in Accra, Ghana, the body is to issue a third report
looking at what can be done to slow the process and help people,
animals and plant life to adapt to irreversible change.
In September, a final report will put the conclusions into one
major document which the scientists and environmentalists -- as well
as insurance companies and new, clean energy industries -- hope will
prod political leaders to action.
In parts of the scientific community, the IPCC has critics who say
there is no solid evidence for unusual global warming.
Producers and users of fuels like coal and oil also deny it, as do
opponents of the U.N. who suggest the IPCC is part of a plot to
install a world government of international bureaucrats.
SAUDIS, CHINESE SAID TO RESIST
Diplomats involved in last week's closed-door Geneva sessions said
Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and industrial giant China delayed
approval of the Summary for Policymakers by arguing over almost every
line of the text.
But mainstream scientists, even outside the wide embrace of the
IPCC, say the work it has done over the past 10 years has ended debate
on whether warming is taking place and moved it on to measures that
need to be taken.
IPCC backers hope the reports will push governments to try harder
after they failed at a meeting in the Hague last November to agree on
reducing carbon, or ``greenhouse gas,'' emissions.
That meeting focused on implementing a protocol negotiated in Kyoto
in 1997 on cutting emissions from fossil fuel use. The governments
meet again in Bonn in May.
Monday's report warned that the United States -- where skepticism
about warming is strong in the new administration -- would not escape
a rise in flooding and storms that have caused billions of dollars in
damage in recent years.
ENVIRONMENTAL BODY URGES U.S. ACTION
In a comment on the report, the global conservation body WWF's
Washington-based Climate Change Campaign director Jennifer Morgan said
the IPCC findings showed that ``it is time for governments such as the
United States to get serious about reducing their carbon dioxide
emissions.''
The Dutch-based environmental group Greenpeace said the report
revealed a ``climate emergency'' which the world's richest nations
needed to tackle urgently.
The IPCC said northern hemisphere countries would probably become
hotter, bringing a rise in deaths from heat stroke in cities and
diseases until now restricted to tropical areas, like malaria and
mortal viral infections.
Africa -- with its already severe economic and social problems --
would be most vulnerable. Disease levels could shoot up, especially in
crowded cities along the continent's coasts which could also face
inundation as sea levels rise.
In Asia, it said, mangrove forests that protect river and sea banks
could be swamped, especially in Bangladesh. Forest fires could become
more frequent and warmer conditions could increase the spread of
infectious disease.
ASIAN ICE MELT TO BRING WATER SHORTAGE
The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, which feed river systems
providing water to around 500 million people, could cause huge
flooding and then massive water shortages.
Much of Latin America, from Mexico to Argentina, could see a
decline in crop yields, deciduous tropical forests could shrink and
new diseases spread, while renowned wildlife like the Central American
quetzal bird could disappear.
Other animals that could vanish included the polar bear, penguins,
the Bengal tiger and the central African mountain gorilla.
In Europe, southern countries were more likely to be affected, with
an increased risk of water shortage and a deterioration in soil
quality that would affect agriculture.
Australia, the report said, could face a major threat to
agriculture as drought spread. In the Middle East, political tension
could be heightened and slide into wars over water resources as rivers
dried out.